[This article was written for and originally published in my employer’s internal company newsletter, The TABloid]
In life and in business, many of us fall prey to faulty assumptions because we, as humans, are natural pattern seekers. We tend to:
1) favor the simplest explanations (a misplaced attempt, perhaps, at Occam’s Razor),
2) accept the first explanation that fits the observed evidence, or
3) believe that the thing which caused the same or a similar problem in the past is what is causing it now.
But assumptions can often be an obstacle to progress and innovation when they lead us down a wrong path or deter us from pursuing a correct one. Relevant anecdotes include Marvin Pipkin, who accomplished the “supposedly impossible task of finding a way to frost electric light bulbs on the inside without weakening the glass” because he didn’t know the assignment was given to new GE hires merely as a joke or hazing, and George Dantzig, who “solved two open problems in statistical theory, which he had mistaken for homework after arriving late to a lecture.”
In marketing today, there are many who claim to be “data-driven” and there is a whole field of analytics known as “data science.” But those who wish to fit the label must be willing to set aside personal preference, question “gut instinct,” acknowledge biases, and discard invalid or outdated information.
I recently listened to a podcast episode in which Adam Grant, professor at the Wharton School of Business and author of the book Think Again, explained a framework where four mindsets—and their accompanying behaviors—are equated to four different professions (building on his own and the work of his colleague Philip Tetlock).
· Preacher: Primarily concerned with defending your sacred values; you believe you have already found the truth and must adhere to it at all costs.
· Prosecutor: Primarily concerned with proving the other side wrong and destroying any potential counterarguments against your views.
· Politician: Primarily concerned with winning favor and support, regardless of your own views; campaigning for approval from your constituents.
· Scientist: Primarily concerned with asking questions and constructing experiments that prove or disprove hypotheses through sound data.
You can probably guess based on a quick “which of these is not like the others” assessment that Grant’s focus is on acquiring a scientific mindset. But why?
Well, for starters, one controlled experiment on the subject found that Italian entrepreneurs who were taught and challenged to exercise a scientific mindset in their business (i.e. to view their strategy as a hypothesis and their product as an experiment) were more willing to pivot, were more intellectually humble and curious, and generated 40 times as much revenue as their peers in the control group.
A scientific mindset is to not just have an awareness of your assumptions and preconceptions, but to mitigate confirmation bias by actively seeking evidence that challenges your convictions. Scientists hold their opinions as hypotheses to be tested, and approach problems with an eye toward learning. They are willing, even eager, to change their views when faced with new evidence or information that shows their previous understanding to be incomplete or inaccurate.
So how do we do it? Here are three recommendations that every one of us can implement:
1) Focus on generating strong hypotheses and rely on data to answer the hypothesis. Accept your conclusions only when there is unbiased evidence to support them.
2) Don’t attach convictions to your identity. If new information arises that would challenge your opinion or show your previous understanding was incorrect, you are able to update your views without feeling you’ve lost or betrayed a core piece of who you are.
3) When you form an opinion (hopefully an educated one), make a list upfront of what conditions would cause you to change your mind. Deciding in advance has the dual benefits of a) saving your future self from having to decide how to handle new information as it arises and b) increasing confidence in your current view, which is based on all available information, without assuming that the current state will remain true and unchanged in perpetuity.
If you are interested in reading more about Grant’s work, I suggest this article or this interview.
While we may be marketers, programmers, client managers, salespeople, etc., I believe we can still benefit from developing a scientific mindset, and I am excited to practice it more in my own role and life.